Updated October 2026. Rewritten with 2026 figures. The supply chart at the end is from our September 2025 update.
Brisbane and South East Queensland in late 2026
Queensland’s market spent most of the past decade rising. In 2026 it reached a turning point. Brisbane values peaked in May and fell 1.5% in September, while the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.60%. The structural drivers covered in our 2025 update have not gone away, though: people keep arriving and homes are still not being built fast enough.
Population growth driving demand
Queensland’s population reached 5,712,124 at the end of 2025, up 1.6% in a year. Overseas migration added about 54,600 people, interstate migration about 16,500 and natural increase about 21,000. Ipswich (3.5%) and Logan (3.1%) were the fastest-growing South East Queensland councils in 2024–25.
ShapingSEQ plans for about 6 million South East Queensland residents and almost 900,000 new homes by 2046. Read more on how migration affects prices and rents here.
Supply still falls short
- Queensland approved 47,623 dwellings in the year to June 2026, the most in a decade.
- The state needs about 53,500 a year to meet its target of one million homes by 2044.
- Apartment approvals dropped sharply in August 2026, from 1,330 to 337.
- Brisbane’s vacancy rate was 0.9% in July 2026 (SQM Research).
Queensland approved 47,623 homes in the year to June 2026, a ten-year high, and it still wasn’t enough.
Why this matters for investors
- Rents: Brisbane asking rents rose about 8% over the year to July 2026.
- Prices: a softer market may give buyers more choice and room to negotiate after several years of competition.
- Holding costs: higher rates mean cash flow needs testing at today’s rates, not last year’s.
- Density: well-located units and townhouses continue to gain share; Brisbane unit values rose faster than houses over the year to August 2026.
The outlook
Most forecasters now expect a period of flat to falling prices nationally, while rents stay firm because vacancy is low. Hotspotting’s start-of-year outlook expected Queensland to keep outperforming on the back of infrastructure jobs and supply shortages; investors should weigh that against the mid-year rate rises.
Our latest builder and developer stock lists (July–October 2026) include 568 new listings in South East Queensland, priced from $600k to $4.35m with a median of $1.01m, and a median rent estimate of $800 a week (about 4.1% gross). These are indicative figures across many projects, not a single offer. Current suburbs, land and build prices and rents are on our South East Queensland property investment page.
Current Supply versus Required Supply in South East Queensland
Supply chart from our September 2025 update.
Sources: Cotality Home Value Index, September 2026; CommBank on the RBA September 2026 decision; QGSO population growth, Dec 2025; QGSO regional population growth 2024–25; ShapingSEQ 2023; Master Builders Queensland; Your Investment Property; SQM Research vacancy rates, July 2026; ABC News, 1 Oct 2026; Real Estate Business on Hotspotting, Jan 2026.
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